The Mathematically Impossible Discrepancies
Of The Florida And Ohio Exit Polls vs. The Final Results
by Mark R. Elsis
Originally published on November 5, 2004.
Updated and published on March 15, 2020.
This article was rank first by Google for years
when "stolen election" was the search words.
Since March 2017, Google censorship has delisted
almost all of the websites and the network I created.
This is an assault against our first amendment rights.
"If this were a dictatorship,
it would be a heck of a lot easier,
just so long as I'm the dictator."
December 18, 2000
George Walker Bush
Florida and Ohio were the two most important swing states in the 2004 United States presidential election.
The margin of error for a 95% confidence interval is +/- 3% for the national exit poll and +/- 4% for the 50 state exit polls. On November 2, 2004, the exit polls showed John Kerry with a lead over George W. Bush of 3 percentage points in Florida and 4 percentage points in Ohio. As it stands today, November 5, 2004, John Kerry has ended up losing Florida to George W. Bush by 5.2 percentage points and in Ohio, he has ended up losing by 2.5 percentage points.
The difference between the Florida exit poll and the final results are 8.2 percentage points. This is more than double the +/- 4% error rate for this exit poll. This 105% increase in the error rate is statistically next to impossible to happen.
The difference between the Ohio exit poll and the final results is 6.5 percentage points. This is a 62.5% increase in the +/- 4% error rate for this exit poll. A 62.5% increase in the error rate is statistically very unlikely to occur.
Together, the likelihood of Florida and Ohio both seeing such differences from their exit polls to the final results are statistically impossible. Therefore the only conclusion one could derive from this statistic impossibility is that this was a stolen election. The new electronic voting machines with no paper receipts are suspect.
About The National Election Pool Exit Poll
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International conducted exit polls in each state and nationally for the National Election Pool, a cooperative agreement among the Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC news. There are 31 current subscribers to their service.
The election day survey was based on 11,027 interviews with voters who cast their votes at 1,480 precincts selected to be a representative sample of states and the nation as a whole. Telephone interviews were used to supplement results in states that allow early voting through absentee ballots or other options. The exit polls surveyed 2,846 voters in Florida and 1,963 in Ohio.
The polling places were selected as a stratified probability sample of each state. The purpose of stratification is to group precincts with similar vote characteristics. A recent past election was used to identify all the precincts, as they existed for that election. The total vote in each precinct and the partisan division of the vote from this past race are used for the stratification. Also, counties are used for stratifying the precincts. The total vote also is used to determine the probability of selection. Each voter in a state has approximately the same chance of being selected in the sample.
CNN.com Changes Ohio Exit Poll Numbers:
Why did CNN.com change their Ohio exit poll numbers after 1:05am? The first graphic was taken from CNN.com at 1:05am on November 3, 2004. The exit poll chart shows John Kerry leading George W. Bush by 4 percentage points. The second graphic was taken from CNN.com at 6:41am on November 3, 2004. This new exit poll chart shows George W. Bush leading John Kerry by 2.5 percentage points.
How To Cover Up The Stolen Election:
I also found it very interesting that Senator John McCain, the Bush administration's supposed non-partisan heaviest hitter went on the Tonight Show on Thursday, November 4, 2004, which was the perfect day, to try to quell any talk of mischief in the Florida and Ohio exit polls vs. the final results. Bringing out McCain, coupled with the perfect timing to try to cover up this stolen election is a dead give away of what truly happened.
What I Tried To Do To Stop Stolen Elections From Happening In The Future:
I worked for weeks after I first published this article to get the four minor presidential candidates of 2004 to all to come out together at the National Press Club in Washington D.C., to talk about the discrepancies between the exit polls and the final results, and the new electronic voting machines that had proprietary software that was hackable and also paperless, therefore leaving no voting trail.
The four presidential candidates that I contacted were, Michael Peroutka, of the Constitution Party, Michael Badnarik, of the Libertarian Party, David Cobb, of the Green Party, and Ralph Nader, of the Reform Party.
It was working, I had convinced Michael Peroutka, of the Constitution Party, Michael Badnarik, of the Libertarian Party, David Cobb, of the Green Party, to all speak out on this most important issue. The only person who refused was Ralph Nader, of the Reform Party. When the other three candidates then asked about Nader and found out he wasn't going to speak out, one by one they all backed out.
After this, my respect for many of the commendable issues that Ralph Nader stood for, and was campaigning on, was forever gone.
One last thing, this is not a partisan issue with me, since I did not vote for either George W. Bush or John F. Kerry. I did it to try to bring about fair elections, something that I have realized since this happened is completely impossible with the corrupt two-party system, both run by oligarchal kleptocrats.
Presidential Election 2004 Florida Results
Presidential Election 2004 Ohio Results
Black Box Voting - Election Watch
Edison Research - Election Polling
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